{"id":7322,"date":"2026-10-21T13:33:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T10:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/?p=7322"},"modified":"2026-10-21T13:33:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T10:33:36","slug":"clean-grid-unclear-claim-testing-kengens-carbon-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/?p=7322","title":{"rendered":"Clean grid, unclear claim: Testing KenGen\u2019s carbon numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">KenGen\u2019s first standalone sustainability report offers precise-sounding figures on renewables, emissions and carbon credits. Some can be tested today, some cannot yet, and one carries a date problem. Here is how to tell the difference.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>By The Ledger Africa Editorial Desk<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KenGen says that 94.4% of the electricity it dispatched in the year to June 2025 came from renewable sources, that its carbon intensity was 0.06089 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) per megawatt hour (MWh), and that it generated 6.9 million carbon credits. The figures come from the first standalone sustainability report of the majority state-owned generator, launched on 29 June 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nothing in the public record suggests the numbers are wrong. But they are three different kinds of claim, and each needs a different kind of proof. That makes them a fair test of how to read any corporate green claim. Ask which number it is, over what period, measured how, and checked by whom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Claim one: a mostly renewable fleet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KenGen has 1,786MW of capacity: 826MW of hydropower, 754MW of geothermal, about 26MW of wind and the balance, around 180MW, in thermal plants that burn fuel. Thermal is roughly a tenth of capacity but a smaller share of output, because those plants run when water and steam fall short. The renewable share of output therefore sits above the renewable share of capacity, and it moves with the weather. The business site Khusoko, describing the report, notes that average plant availability fell from 82.91% in September 2024 to 67.42% in February 2025 before recovering. One year\u2019s share is a snapshot of one hydrological year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To substantiate it, a reader needs metered output by plant over several years, which KenGen\u2019s accounts and the energy regulator\u2019s data should allow. There is also a loose end. The launch statement says 94.4%. Khusoko gives 95%, and a financial data site\u2019s summary of the 2025 annual report does too [verify against the original]. Rounded, 94.4% is 94%. Either the two measures differ, perhaps dispatch against supply to the grid, or one figure is rounded loosely. The gap is small, but it shows why the definition matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Claim two: a low carbon intensity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carbon intensity divides emissions by output. \u201cCO2 equivalent\u201d converts other greenhouse gases into the weight of carbon dioxide that would warm the planet as much. Intensity is fairer than a raw total for a growing generator, but it can fall while total emissions rise if output grows faster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KenGen\u2019s statement gives only the ratio. A reader needs both halves, the emissions total and the generation it is divided by, plus the boundary (which plants, gases and fuels) and the method. The usual references are the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), whose emissions standard has a specific disclosure for intensity. KenGen says its report follows GRI, so a GRI content index, and whether the report claims to be \u201cin accordance with\u201d the standard or only \u201cwith reference to\u201d it, is the first document to look for. Independent assurance, under a standard such as ISAE 3410, would add a second pair of eyes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A reader can work backwards. Multiply 0.06089 by the 8,482 GWh of electricity the annual report summary says KenGen sold [verify] and the implied total is about 516,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent. That is Ledger arithmetic, not a KenGen figure, and it rests on electricity sold rather than generated. Whether the total looks right depends on how much fuel the thermal plants burned and on the geothermal fields, which are low-carbon but not carbon-free, because the steam brings some gases to the surface. The first question for KenGen is whether the figure includes both, and over what boundary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two more claims ride on the number. KenGen calls it among the lowest of any generator in Africa. Its statement names no comparator, and other generators report on different bases, so the comparison cannot be tested from public material today. And Khusoko reports a target of 0.05115 tCO2e\/MWh by 2030, a cut of about 16% (Ledger calculation). A target is a promise, not a result, and it is worth only as much as its baseline and method.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Claim three: 6.9 million carbon credits<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the claim with the best paper trail and the vaguest wording. A carbon credit certifies one tonne of CO2 equivalent avoided. KenGen\u2019s come from six projects registered under the UN\u2019s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): geothermal at Olkaria, hydropower at Tana and Kiambere, and the Ngong wind farm. Under the CDM, outside auditors verify reductions before credits are issued, which is stronger evidence than a company\u2019s own estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The record shows a figure that predates the reporting year. By September 2021, KenGen said the UN had issued a cumulative 4,617,309 credits across the six projects, the first being 57,458 for Tana in March 2020. In November 2024, seven months before the 2024\/25 year closed, KenGen was reported as saying it had accrued 6.9 million credits through the six projects. The June 2026 statement uses the same number but says KenGen kept its renewable share \u201cwhile generating\u201d it, which reads like a one-year output. In 2021 KenGen put the six projects\u2019 annual offset at roughly 1.5 million tonnes. Against that, 6.9 million in one year would be more than four times the pace. As a running total it is plausible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The wording then drifts again. The data-site summary of the annual report gives 6,384,398 credits \u201cavailable for sale\u201d [verify]. Accrued, generated and available for sale are three different things, and the public material does not show how they reconcile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a green claim, credits need careful reading. They do not measure KenGen\u2019s own emissions. They measure emissions avoided against a baseline fixed when each project was registered, and once a credit is sold and retired, the buyer uses it and KenGen cannot count the same tonne again. Credits are also income: KenGen\u2019s G2G 2034 strategy lists carbon trading among the non-electricity revenue it wants to grow. In 2021 KenGen said 550,981 credits would earn about KSh119 million, or roughly KSh216 each. At that price 6.9 million credits would be worth about KSh1.5 billion, against profit after tax of KSh10.48 billion in 2024\/25. That is an illustration only, because prices differ by credit and buyer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Claim Check<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th>Claim<\/th><th>What would substantiate it<\/th><th>What the public record shows<\/th><th>Status<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>94.4% renewable dispatch<\/td><td>Metered output by plant over several years; a definition of \u201cdispatch\u201d<\/td><td>Fleet mix fits; 94.4% and 95% both in circulation; output depends on rainfall<\/td><td>Plausible and checkable; definition open<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.06089 tCO2e\/MWh<\/td><td>Emissions total, generation, boundary and method; assurance<\/td><td>The ratio only; no inputs or comparator in the material read<\/td><td>Not yet checkable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6.9 million carbon credits<\/td><td>UN registry issuance by project and year; sold and unsold balances<\/td><td>Same figure used in November 2024 and June 2026; 2021 issuance record; a different \u201cavailable for sale\u201d figure<\/td><td>Supported in kind; period and meaning unclear<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What would settle it<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KenGen has called this report a baseline for annual reporting. The next test is whether the 2025\/26 edition returns the same three numbers with definitions, boundaries and a date attached to every credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>KenGen\u2019s first standalone sustainability report offers precise-sounding figures on renewables, emissions and carbon credits. Some can be tested today, some cannot yet, and one carries a date problem. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[335],"tags":[],"ledger_sector":[],"class_list":["post-7322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-esg-impact"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7322"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7324,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7322\/revisions\/7324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7322"},{"taxonomy":"ledger_sector","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theledgerafrica.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fledger_sector&post=7322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}